Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have reached a dangerous new high following Ethiopia’s January 15 announcement that it seized a lorry carrying thousands of rounds of ammunition allegedly supplied by Eritrea to Fano rebels in the Amhara region. Federal police described the incident as clear evidence of Eritrean meddling aimed at undermining stability ahead of Ethiopia’s June 2026 general elections.
Eritrea swiftly denied the allegations, accusing Ethiopia of fabricating the claims to justify aggression and revive territorial ambitions—particularly Addis Ababa’s persistent demands for access to the Eritrean Port of Assab. The International Crisis Group has warned that the escalating war of words, combined with troop buildups along the border, risks a miscalculation that could plunge the Horn into broader conflict, especially with Sudan already in flames.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government insists the seizures prove external interference in domestic insurgencies, while Asmara has threatened to quit regional forums in protest. Analysts see the dispute as intertwined with Ethiopia’s internal challenges, including economic strain and political fragmentation, making de-escalation through AU-mediated talks increasingly urgent.
